In a surprising turn of events, a recent poll conducted by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa. This news has caused a shift in the odds on various betting platforms, with both Kalshi and Robinhood tightening their predictions following the release of the poll results.
It is worth noting that Trump easily won the state of Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, making Harris' lead in the poll quite unexpected. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a margin of error of 3.4 points. This swing in favor of Harris is significant, especially considering that the same poll in September showed Trump ahead by four points.
The betting odds on Kalshi have seen a notable increase in Harris' favor, with her chances of winning the election rising from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing. Similarly, on Robinhood, Trump's odds of winning have decreased from 66% on October 29 to 51%, while Harris' odds have improved from 39% to 50%.
The popularity of betting markets for political events has been on the rise, with platforms like Kalshi attracting over $100 million in bets on the election in October alone. Polymarket, another prediction market, saw betting volume for the US election exceed $2 billion last month.
Overall, the unexpected lead that Kamala Harris holds over Donald Trump in Iowa has caused a shift in betting odds and generated significant interest in the outcome of the upcoming election. It will be interesting to see how these developments unfold as the election draws nearer.